Probabilities about Terrorism in 2002

[Excerpt from TT: 2001-12-20]

[ShannonB] I have to ask about the war. What are the continuing probabilities of terrorist strikes against the United States and the UK in the early months of 2002, and what kinds of strikes are being contemplated?

[M_Entity] The probabilities are still quite high at 72%. The Mid Western United States stands as the most vulnerable at this point, particularly Chicago. New York City is not “in the clear” yet, with general ideas to destroy either communications or public transports, both of which are not protected in any meaningful way. Paris and England stand as targets, but not nearly as high in probability at 48%. These numbers are being determined within the time frame between what is now and the end of March 2002, though this could change at any moment.